Comparative Effectiveness of Blockchain Provenance Verification on Counterfeit Reduction in Art Transactions: A Multi-Scenario Empirical Assessment

Abstract

The global art market, valued at $57.5 billion in 2024, continues to face systemic fraud challenges, with studies estimating that up to 50% of circulating artworks may be forged or misattributed. Blockchain-based provenance verification has been widely proposed as a solution, yet empirical assessments of its actual effectiveness across diverse transaction scenarios remain limited. This study conducts a multi-case comparative analysis of five blockchain provenance platforms—Artory, Verisart, Codex Protocol, Fairchain, and Arcual—evaluating their performance across auction, gallery, and cross-border transaction scenarios. The assessment employs four evaluation dimensions: transparency enhancement, counterfeit reduction contribution, operational cost, and stakeholder acceptance. Data are drawn from platform operational records, the Art Basel and UBS Global Art Market Reports (2020–2025), FBI Art Crime Team enforcement statistics, and EU 5AMLD compliance documentation. The findings reveal significant performance disparities among platforms: institutional-partnership-based solutions achieve 34–47% higher transparency scores in auction scenarios than token-economics-based platforms, while cross-border transactions reveal critical limitations in regulatory interoperability. Stakeholder acceptance varies considerably, with insurance companies showing the highest willingness to adopt (72%) and independent galleries the lowest (31%). The results provide evidence-based recommendations for enhancing U.S. customs compliance and for art market regulatory policy.